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A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."

New Title Intends to Stir Debate

The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Both writes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.

Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."

Appeal for Broader Discussion

Westminster should participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."